E-Books →The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales

Constituency-level analysis of voting at general elections between 1979 and 2019 reveals a swing from Labour to the Conservatives in demographically 'left behind' areas (areas with largely white, working-class populations and lower levels of educational attainment), while Labour's support has remained stable in areas characterized by high levels of economic deprivation and insecure employment. Areas that have experienced improvements in their socioeconomic condition - typically cities where Labour have inefficiently stacked up votes - have swung towards Labour, whereas areas characterized by economic and population decline have swung towards the Conservatives. Spatial analysis reveals clusters of seats where each party has more support than expected based on sociodemographic composition - places where, in short, place matters. In Merseyside, Labour's vote is much higher than would be predicted by demographics, while this is similarly the case for the Conservatives in Lincolnshire and parts of the West Midlands. But what makes these areas distinctive? We present qualitative case studies for Merseyside and Lincolnshire to identify the place-based, contextual factors that help explain their unusual political characteristics. The book argues for the need to recognize the importance of people, places, and parties in shaping the geography of electoral outcomes.
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